President Trump closed out the midterm campaign on Monday by pointing to a sharp one-day fall in oil prices, telling voters that relief at the pump is coming as his administration gains ground against Iran.
“Oil today is down $10,” Trump said during his closing midterm remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, adding that prices would fall much further because the U.S. is winning against Tehran.
The numbers backed up the president’s point on the size of the move. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading around $104 a barrel Monday afternoon after starting the day near $112. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, slid to roughly $96 a barrel from nearly $103. Trump called it the biggest drop in oil in history.
The decline came amid encouraging signs in diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran. Tehran said it was prepared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington agreed to its conditions for ending the conflict on all fronts. Axios reported that Vice President JD Vance had sent a letter to Iranian national security chief Mohsen Rezaei about the possibility of new talks, the highest-level outreach in months. In-person talks were also held in Qatar over the weekend.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for global oil, has been closed at times during the war, and the cost of moving crude through the region has climbed even when tankers have been allowed to pass. Damage to energy infrastructure, both in the Middle East and from the Russia-Ukraine war, has added further pressure on prices.
The relief was already showing up at gas stations. AAA reported the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline at $4.17 on Monday. GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said wholesale gasoline and diesel prices pointed to a decline of roughly 16 cents a gallon, and that the national average could dip below $4 within a week if nothing changes. He cautioned, however, that volatility could return quickly after the election depending on whether new attacks occur or a truce takes hold.
Analysts also noted that it can take time for changes in crude prices to work their way into what drivers pay for gasoline and diesel, so the full benefit may not be felt immediately.
The drop arrives at a politically important moment. Back in September, as Brent crude pushed past $100 a barrel, Trump predicted that oil prices would start tumbling right after the election and that the conflict with Iran would wind down once the vote was over. Monday’s slide came a day ahead of schedule.
Energy costs have been one of the top concerns for voters this year, with diesel climbing above $6 a gallon for the first time in September. Frustration over prices is expected to weigh heavily on Tuesday’s results as Republicans work to protect their narrow majorities in the House and Senate.
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