The United States’ foreign-born population plunged by an estimated 2.9 million people between January 2025 and July 2026, marking a dramatic reversal from the surge recorded during the previous four years, according to an analysis of federal data.
The Center for Immigration Studies examined figures from the Current Population Survey, a monthly household survey conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The survey found that the foreign-born population fell from January 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to office, through July 2026. The category includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, long-term temporary visitors and illegal immigrants.
That decline followed an 8.3 million increase in the foreign-born population between January 2021 and January 2025, which the report described as the largest increase over any four-year period in American history.
The findings indicate that net migration to the United States turned negative during the past year and a half for the first time since the 1930s, according to the analysis.
The entire decrease involved Latin American non-citizens who reported arriving in the country in 1980 or later. The report said that group significantly overlaps with the illegal immigrant population.
Researchers preliminarily estimated that the illegal immigrant population declined by approximately 2.3 million, falling from 15.8 million in January 2025 to 13.5 million in July 2026. That would represent a 14.6% decrease.
The estimate reflects the combined effects of new arrivals, deportations, voluntary departures, legalizations and deaths. Researchers said fewer legal and illegal immigrants appear to be entering the country while departures have increased.
The number of illegal immigrants had previously grown by an estimated 5.6 million from the beginning of 2021 through the beginning of 2025, the report said.
Immigration enforcement also increased during Trump’s second term. The analysis found that interior removals more than tripled compared with the final portion of the Biden administration, increasing by roughly 207,000.
Voluntary departures reached 89,494 during the first 16 months of the Trump administration, compared with 11,977 over the final 16 months of the Biden administration. However, the report said enforcement-related departures alone could not explain the entire population decline, meaning voluntary emigration would also have needed to rise substantially.
The economic impact could be less severe than the overall decline suggests. Only 44% of the decrease involved workers. The foreign-born workforce fell by slightly less than 1.3 million, while the number of immigrants who were not working dropped by 1.6 million. Non-workers include children, elderly people, full-time caregivers and others without jobs.
Researchers nevertheless urged caution. The survey’s July 2026 foreign-born estimate carried a margin of error exceeding 1 million people. Immigrants may also have become less willing to participate amid increased enforcement, although the report found no clear evidence that response behavior caused the decline.
Even if reduced survey participation explained half the decrease, researchers concluded that the remaining drop would still be unprecedented.
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