Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville says he does not believe Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has a realistic chance of becoming the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2028, arguing that the party has historically avoided selecting its most liberal candidates.
Carville made the remarks during a Thursday interview with Newsmax anchor Greta Van Susteren, where he dismissed the idea that Ocasio-Cortez is positioned to lead the Democratic ticket despite her growing national profile.
“The Democrats — not even in ’72 — never nominate the most liberal candidate,” Carville said. “But that’s the fantasy of the right wing, that the Democrats are going to nominate a socialist, urbanist, whatever [candidate].”
While rejecting the idea that Ocasio-Cortez could secure the nomination, Carville was complimentary of the New York congresswoman’s abilities, saying he respects her political talent and the work being done by her team.
“I think AOC is remarkably talented, let me be very clear about that,” Carville said. “Her staff work is pristine, but she’s not gonna run for president because she’s not gonna have any chance.”
Carville also pointed to what he believes is the key voting bloc in Democratic presidential primaries, arguing that Southern Black voters ultimately play the deciding role in choosing the party’s nominee.
“Remember who decides who the Democratic nominee is, and that is Southern Blacks,” he said. “And I got news for you — they’re not that liberal.”
The longtime Democratic strategist, who helped lead former President Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign, acknowledged that others appear more optimistic about Ocasio-Cortez’s political prospects than he is.
Political prediction markets currently give the congresswoman relatively strong odds of capturing the Democratic nomination, even if she is not viewed as the favorite.
According to Kalshi, Ocasio-Cortez has the second-best odds of becoming the Democratic nominee in 2028, with a 15% chance. She is narrowly ahead of Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., while trailing California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is listed with a 20% chance.
On Polymarket, the numbers differ slightly. There, Ocasio-Cortez trails Ossoff by a narrow margin, with the New York congresswoman at 14% compared to the Georgia senator’s 15%. Newsom again leads the field on the platform with a 20% chance.
Carville’s latest comments continue a pattern of criticism aimed at the Democratic Party’s progressive wing.
The strategist has recently voiced concerns over several far-left and democratic socialist candidates winning Democratic primary elections. During an appearance on Fox News last month, he urged congressional Democrats to distance themselves from socialists who win office rather than embracing them as representatives of the party.
“I think the Democrats need to stand up and say this is not who we are,” Carville said at the time. “We do not determine who you can date or not date. That is your own business.”
His latest remarks reinforce his longstanding view that the Democratic Party is unlikely to nominate a candidate from its most progressive faction, even as figures such as Ocasio-Cortez continue to draw attention from political observers and prediction markets looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race.
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