Democrats hoping to reclaim control of the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections are now reportedly facing a difficult path, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who argued Wednesday that the numbers simply are not adding up in their favor.
Speaking with CNN anchor John Berman, Enten analyzed new polling from The New York Times and Siena College covering several of the key Senate races expected to determine control of the upper chamber. While Democrats are targeting multiple Republican-held seats, Enten said the current political landscape presents a significant mathematical hurdle.
To regain the Senate majority, Democrats must achieve a net gain of four seats. Based on the latest polling, Enten said that objective remains well out of reach.
“Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to regain control of the upper chamber in Congress,” Enten said. “And right now, the math, simply put, isn’t there for them. That is the picture. It’s a math problem.”
The survey shows Democrats with a clear advantage in only one of the major battleground races. In North Carolina, the Democratic candidate leads by seven percentage points. Elsewhere, however, the contests remain far more competitive. Polling in Texas shows the race tied, while Republicans hold narrow leads of two or three points in Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.
Enten pointed to those results as evidence that Democrats are still well short of the gains needed to flip the Senate.
“That gets you one seat,” he said. “But, of course, you need four seats. And on this board, red, red, red, close races, and a tie. You’re at one. You’re not yet to four.”
Berman acknowledged that Democrats have remained competitive in several Republican-held states, but he also noted that close races alone are not enough if they fail to translate into victories.
“The good news for Democrats might be they’re close in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio,” Berman said. “But again, it needs to be four of these that are blue in order for them to retake it.”
At one point, Berman remarked that he expected stronger numbers for Democrats given ongoing concerns surrounding inflation and the conflict involving Iran.
Enten also highlighted the closely watched Senate race in Maine between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Graham Platner. Polling there remains divided. The New York Times/Siena survey found Platner ahead by two points among likely voters, while a Fox News poll of all voters showed Collins leading by three points.
Even if Democrats were to win Maine in addition to North Carolina, Enten argued they would still fall well short of the four-seat gain required.
“On the mathematical march to four seats, there’s really only one seat at this point that Democrats look like they can count on,” Enten said. “They probably win one of these other seats. But again, that gets you only to two and you need four.”
Enten also argued that the broader political environment continues to favor Republicans in many of the states Democrats are targeting. Aside from Maine, he noted that the key battlegrounds are traditionally Republican-leaning states where polling indicates that more than half of voters believe the Democratic Party is too far left.
According to Enten, those underlying political realities are creating significant obstacles for Democratic candidates, regardless of how competitive individual races may appear.
“Look, Democrats have a shot here. There are seats on the table, but the fundamentals are against them,” Enten said. “The mathematical problem is there for Democrats at this point. They, simply put, have a statistical math problem.”
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