New crime data now suggests the Trump administration’s aggressive push on public safety is paying dividends, with the United States seeing a record-setting decline in murders over the past year.
Murders dropped by roughly 20 percent from January through October compared with the same period in 2024, according to an analysis by crime data expert Jeff Asher. The findings rely on the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies nationwide. The index counts murders while excluding manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, and accidental killings.
Although the data currently runs only through October and official FBI violent crime statistics for 2025 will not be released until 2026, Axios reported that the Real-Time Crime Index has historically tracked closely with federal crime data. That consistency lends weight to the conclusion that the nation is experiencing one of the sharpest one-year drops in homicide on record.
President Donald Trump has made fighting violent crime a centerpiece of his second term, backing local law enforcement with federal resources and taking decisive action in cities struggling with disorder. In August, Trump issued an executive order declaring a crime emergency in Washington, D.C., and ordered the National Guard to assist in restoring public safety.
The impact in the nation’s capital was swift. According to the index, Washington, D.C., experienced nearly a 28 percent drop in murders this year. House Speaker Mike Johnson said Trump’s move produced “immediate results in the nation’s capital,” citing Metropolitan Police Department data showing homicides fell nearly 60 percent in August 2025 compared with August 2024.
Trump expanded his law-and-order strategy nationwide in July, signing an executive order targeting crime and public disorder. The order authorized federal support and resources to help local law enforcement combat violent crime and stabilize communities.
The administration also deployed the National Guard to Memphis, Tennessee, another city grappling with serious violence. There, murders declined by nearly 20 percent from 2024 to 2025, according to the Real-Time Crime Index.
Major metropolitan areas across the country have reported similar progress. New York City saw a 17.6 percent decline in murders compared with last year. New Orleans recorded a 7.5 percent decrease, while Los Angeles reported homicides down by nearly 19 percent.
The downward trend is not entirely new. Real-Time Crime Index data indicates that crime rates nationwide have been falling since 2021, a pattern also reflected in FBI statistics cited by Axios. Asher noted that the index shows “sizable declines” across nearly every major crime category and across all population groups tracked.
That said, the data also highlights stark contrasts at the local level. A small number of jurisdictions experienced dramatic spikes in homicide. Gilbert, Arizona, and Johnston County, North Carolina each saw murder totals increase by 600 percent this year, underscoring how localized factors can still drive violence even as the national picture improves.
To further test the trend, Asher examined the 30 U.S. cities with the highest murder totals in 2024. He obtained updated data for 29 of those cities through November, with Phoenix tracked through September. Murders in that group were down nearly 20 percent, suggesting the overall decline is likely to hold through the end of the year.
Other forms of serious crime are also trending downward. Nationwide, motor vehicle thefts fell by 23.2 percent, aggravated assaults declined by 7.5 percent, and robberies dropped by 18.3 percent.
Taken together, the data paints a clear picture: as the Trump administration has prioritized enforcement, backed police, and rejected soft-on-crime approaches, Americans are seeing measurable improvements in public safety across much of the country.
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