California Gov. Gavin Newsom has now reportedly emerged as the early frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, even as cracks in his support reveal a party divided between establishment figures and younger progressives.
A new Yahoo/YouGov survey released Thursday shows that 21 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters identified Newsom as their preferred nominee. While the California governor has not formally announced a presidential bid, his rising profile — largely fueled by his feud with President Donald Trump — has placed him at the center of the Democratic Party’s long-term conversation about leadership.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris followed closely behind with 19 percent support. Harris, who lost to Trump in the 2024 election after a truncated campaign prompted by President Biden’s withdrawal, remains a major figure but carries the burden of her loss.
Other Democrats trailed significantly: New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12 percent, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker at 7 percent, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at 4 percent each, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 2 percent.
The results mark a sharp contrast with a separate Economist/YouGov poll from April, which found Harris leading with 29 percent, while Newsom polled at just 8 percent, near even with Buttigieg at 9 percent and Ocasio-Cortez at 7 percent. The latest numbers suggest that Newsom’s combative posture against Trump has elevated his standing with Democratic voters.
Newsom has used California’s redistricting fights to amplify his national presence, presenting himself as a foil to Republican efforts in Texas to draw GOP-friendly maps. He has also adopted social-media strategies resembling Trump’s, often responding to the president in sharp, attention-grabbing terms.
Still, Democrats’ enthusiasm for Newsom appears limited outside his base. The poll found that just 31 percent of all voters have a favorable view of the California governor, compared to 41 percent unfavorable. Among Democrats, however, the numbers flip, with 62 percent favorable to 14 percent unfavorable.
Trump’s standing in the same survey underscores the stark partisan divide. The president, constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, recorded an overall 42 percent favorable rating and 56 percent unfavorable. Among Republicans, though, his support remains commanding at 89 percent favorable to just 10 percent unfavorable — a loyalty Democrats have struggled to replicate around any single figure.
Perhaps most telling, younger Democrats remain hesitant to rally behind Newsom. Voters under 45 expressed stronger preferences for Harris, at 27 percent, and Ocasio-Cortez, at 22 percent, compared to just 13 percent for the California governor. Those numbers highlight a generational split that could complicate efforts to consolidate the Democratic base in 2028.
The Yahoo/YouGov poll surveyed 1,690 U.S. adults online between Aug. 29 and Sept. 2, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
For Republicans, the poll serves as a reminder that even with Trump’s eventual exit from the ballot, Democrats remain fractured. Newsom may be the frontrunner, but his favorability ratings suggest a candidate who would enter a general election campaign carrying more liabilities than strengths.
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