CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten sounded the alarm for Democrats on Friday, warning that Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is “historically unpopular” and could be handing Republicans a major opportunity in the battleground race.
Enten broke down recent polling in Michigan, pointing to several numbers he described as troubling for Democrats as El-Sayed prepares to face Republican Mike Rogers.
El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat, recently defeated Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., in the Democratic primary.
According to a Fox News survey cited by Enten, Rogers currently leads El-Sayed by four percentage points overall. The Republican also holds a five-point advantage among independent voters. The poll has a three-point margin of error.
Enten said the independent numbers are particularly striking because he could not find another Fox News poll in which the Republican candidate was leading among independents.
“This is extremely unusual,” Enten said.
He pointed out that the Democratic candidate for governor was leading in the same survey, suggesting the problem was specific to the Senate contest rather than a broader collapse in Democratic support.
“This is unique to the Senate race, and it is quite a troubling result for Democrats and quite a heartening one for Republicans,” Enten said.
Enten also described El-Sayed as a “weak candidate” based on his favorability numbers compared with other Democrats competing in battleground-state races.
Democratic candidates in Iowa, Maine and Ohio all registered positive net favorability ratings, according to Enten’s analysis of the Fox News polling.
El-Sayed was the exception.
The Michigan Democrat has a net favorability rating 13 points underwater.
“This is extremely unusual,” Enten said, noting that Democrats across the country have generally succeeded in recruiting candidates who are viewed favorably by voters.
“All the Democrats were above water except for Abdul El-Sayed,” he said. “And he is 13 points underwater.”
Enten argued the numbers point specifically to voter concerns about El-Sayed rather than simply reflecting the political environment in Michigan.
“This is all about Abdul El-Sayed being a weak candidate, at least in the minds of the voters,” he said.
The CNN analyst then put El-Sayed’s current position into historical perspective, noting that he is the only Michigan Democrat this century to trail by at least four points in a Senate race.
Enten said a Michigan Democratic Senate candidate has not been behind by this much at a comparable point essentially since 1994.
“This is extremely, extremely, extremely unusual,” Enten said.
He added that El-Sayed is “breaking records in the ways that you don’t want to.”
The numbers offer Republicans a potential opening with Rogers as Democrats seek to hold their ground in Michigan.
For Enten, the polling points directly toward candidate quality, with El-Sayed’s negative favorability rating and weakness among independents separating his Senate campaign from other Democratic contests both inside Michigan and across other battleground states.
[READ MORE: Larry Kudlow Questions Peggy Flanagan’s Native American Heritage Before Record Is Set Straight]
