Sen. John Fetterman is facing a dramatic collapse in support among members of his own party in Pennsylvania, according to new polling analysis highlighted Friday by CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten—numbers that are raising fresh questions about his political standing heading into a potential reelection bid.
Enten did not mince words when describing the scale of the drop. Speaking with anchor John Berman, he pointed to what he characterized as a stunning reversal for a politician who, not long ago, was widely embraced by Democratic voters in the commonwealth.
Back in 2023, Fetterman enjoyed a net approval rating of plus 68 points among Pennsylvania Democrats. Today, that number has fallen to negative 40 points—a swing of 108 points that Enten emphasized is almost unheard of in modern political polling.
“This is a 108-point swing,” Enten confirmed, underscoring just how sharply sentiment has shifted. What was once a strong base of support has eroded into deep disapproval, placing Fetterman well below even some of the Democratic Party’s more controversial figures.
To put the numbers in perspective, Enten compared Fetterman’s standing to that of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who has faced his own challenges with the Democratic base nationwide. Schumer currently holds a net approval rating of around negative two points—making him roughly 38 points more popular among Democrats than Fetterman is in Pennsylvania.
Even more striking, Enten noted that former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona—who ultimately left the Democratic Party—was still considerably more popular with Democrats just before her departure than Fetterman is now.
The implications for Fetterman’s political future could be significant. Enten suggested there is “basically no doubt” that if Fetterman chooses to seek reelection as a Democrat, he will face a serious primary challenge. Given the depth of the decline, such a contest would likely be highly competitive, with party voters appearing increasingly open to alternatives.
Part of the tension may stem from Fetterman’s own messaging. During the discussion, Berman pointed to the senator’s criticism of fellow Democrats, including his claim that some in the party are suffering from what he calls “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
Enten was blunt in his assessment of that approach, arguing it is unlikely to resonate with the Democratic base. “That is the last thing that Democrats want to hear,” he said, suggesting that such rhetoric may be further alienating core supporters.
To illustrate just how far Fetterman’s numbers have fallen, Enten compared his standing to historical figures at similar points in their political careers. Even presidents who faced significant opposition within their own party, including Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and Richard Nixon, maintained higher approval ratings among their respective bases than Fetterman currently holds among Pennsylvania Democrats.
Trump, Enten noted, had a four-point approval rating in a comparable context, while Bush and Nixon stood at 10 percent and 11 percent, respectively—figures that, while low, still exceed Fetterman’s current position relative to his own party.
The broader takeaway is hard to ignore. Fetterman’s net approval rating of negative 40 places him not just below his contemporaries, but in a category of his own—one that suggests deep dissatisfaction among the very voters he would need most in a primary contest.
As the political landscape continues to shift, the senator’s path forward appears increasingly uncertain. Whether he can rebuild trust within his party or faces a formidable challenge from within may ultimately define the next chapter of his political career.
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